MIT Models Repeated Flood Damage to Guide Road Maintenance Spending

The research moves from a one-dimensional, single-exposure modeling basis toward two-dimensional simulations and probabilistic assessment of repeated flooding over pavement life. It links cumulative deterioration with economic assessment to compare design and maintenance choices under different flood conditions.

A road that looks dry and intact after a flood can still have a weakened subgrade, making surface inspection alone an incomplete basis for maintenance decisions. Accounting for that hidden deterioration could help public works agencies prioritize road rehabilitation and assess drainage-related design choices against long-term costs.

MIT’s Concrete Sustainability Hub is developing a framework to assess how flooding changes pavement performance over an asset’s service life. It extends earlier one-dimensional simulations into two dimensions, modeling water movement and infiltration for roads with paved and unpaved shoulders. The approach connects soil saturation to pavement strength and serviceability, then evaluates repeated flood events rather than a single exposure. It also accounts for a feedback loop: flood damage makes pavement more vulnerable to subsequent flooding. This addresses a planning gap identified by the researchers: design methods based on monthly average precipitation can miss short, intense rainfall and cumulative ponding damage. For public works and transportation asset managers, pairing deterioration probabilities with lifecycle costs could support comparisons of drainage performance, pavement designs and maintenance strategies. The framework remains under development; the supplied report does not establish field validation, agency deployment or demonstrated savings.

Evidence supplied by Roads & Bridges.