OS maps urban heat vulnerability across Great Britain through 2100

OS has produced a Heat Vulnerability Index linking urban form and natural cooling features with observed surface temperatures and projected air temperatures. It extends the assessment from present-day conditions to climate scenarios through 2100.

Heat retention can increase health risks and put pressure on buildings, transport, energy infrastructure and public services. Mapping where vulnerability is projected to intensify can help local authorities, planners and developers assess where cooling measures and heat adaptation are needed.

Ordnance Survey’s Heat Vulnerability Index combines detailed mapping of buildings, hard surfaces, vegetation and water with satellite land surface temperature readings from 4 Earth Intelligence and Met Office air temperature projections. It assesses current urban heat exposure and how that exposure could change through near-term and late-century climate scenarios, including how effectively existing natural features release retained heat. The analysis classifies 59 cities as highly vulnerable today and the remaining 12 as moderately vulnerable. It projects every city in Great Britain reaching high vulnerability by 2040, with 45 reaching the index’s severe category by the end of the century. For planners and infrastructure managers, the index connects physical urban characteristics with projected heat exposure, offering a basis for assessing cooling needs and pressures on public services. These are modelled vulnerability classifications, not measurements of future temperatures or quantified forecasts of health and infrastructure damage.

Evidence supplied by Spatial Source.